Business closures, partial reopenings due to COVID may cost the US $3-$5 trillion in GDP over 2 years
Among highlights of the study, the researchers projected:
- 54 million to 367 million work days would be lost due to people getting sick or die from COVID.
- 2 million to nearly 15 million work days would be lost due to employees staying home to care for sick loved ones.
- Job losses could range from 14.7% to 23.8%, and in the worst case affect an estimated 36.5 million workers.
- Demand for health care has risen with COVID infections. Medical expenses due to COVID-19 from March 2020 to February 2022 could range from nearly $32 billion to $216 billion.
- A loss in demand for some services — such as the use of public transit and school attendance, restaurant dining and travel — as people avoid public places and services to reduce their risk of exposure.
- An uptick in demand for communication services, as many employees during this pandemic have had to work from home.
- An increase in pent-up demand since consumers are unable to spend money on big-ticket items such as cars, as well as travel, restaurants, hotels, merchandise, fitness, sporting events and concerts during the closures, and, to a lesser extent, during the phased reopenings.
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
Release date: 30 November 2020
Source: University of Southern California
